Least good for the least number

This is the corollary to the greatest good for the greatest number. 

The problem of course is that 

  • the few who suffer often fight back
  • those who suffer rise in number

The law of constant misery seems to hold true. Even if everyone had all their basic needs satisfied (including sex), there will always be slight differences in well being, which will be transferred between members of a society into a group of victims.

Louder irrelevant news hides relevant news

Louder irrelevant news

Hidden relevant news

Google Trends Comparison

Cecil The Lion Cecile Richards  2015-09-24 17_42_08-Google Trends - Web Search interest_ cecil the lion, Cecile Richards - Worldwide
Katy Perry’s Prism NSA PRISM  2015-09-24 17_49_14-Google Trends - Web Search interest_ PRISM, Prism - Worldwide, Jul-Dec 2013
Trayvon Martin Edward Snowden  Selection_005
Ashley Madison leaks The United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM) leaks  2015-09-24 17_55_24-Google Trends - Web Search interest_ Ashley Madison, United States Office of Per
Lord Ashcroft alleges that David Cameron fucked a pig as an initiation stunt David Cameron knew about Lord Ashcroft’s Tax evasion for the 6 years he’s been PM  2015-09-24 19_59_26
US Supreme Court Legalizes Gay Marriage TPP Fast Track  2015-09-24 23_38_04-TPPGayMarriage

Legalized gay marriage happen 2 days after Legalized TPP and the gay news silenced the TPP news.

Deleted forum posts about MH17 Tweet predicting MH17 crash one month before the crash Not enough searchs to prove this happened.

The readers of irrelevant news items will feel like they’ve already heard the relevant news item after they read the irrelevant news item. So they will brush off the relevant news item saying they’ve already heard it. This is a common theme I’ve noticed.

Fundamental Laws of Politics

Below are gathered some useful “fundamental laws of politics”.

Adams’s Law: A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.”

Conquest’s Three Laws:

  1. Everyone is conservative about what he knows best.
  2. Any organization not explicitly and constitutionally right-wing will sooner or later become left-wing.
  3. The behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies.

O’Sullivan’s Law: “All organizations that are not actually right-wing will over time become left-wing.”

Iron Law of Oligarchy: in any organization the permanent officials will gradually obtain such influence that its day-to-day program will increasingly reflect their interests rather than its own stated philosophy

Goldstein’s Law: “Throughout recorded time, and probably since the end of the Neolithic Age, there have been three kinds of people in the world, the High, the Middle, and theLow. They have been subdivided in many ways, they have borne countless different names, and their relative numbers, as well as their attitude towards one another, have varied from age to age: but the essential structure of society has never altered.”

Hanlon’s Razor: Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity. [This is almost certainly a corruption of Robert A. Heinlein’s phrase: “You have attributed to villainy conditions which merely result from stupidity” (Logic of Empire, 1941). See also the link for similar aphorisms.]  See however Clark’s Law: “Sufficiently advanced incompetence is functionally indistinguishable from malice.”

Samuel Johnson’s Law: “[W]hen a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” NCT’s corollary: the best check on preening narcissistic moralizing is exposing a man to the consequences of his own prepositions when implemented.

Lincoln’s Law [apocryphal]: “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”

McArdle’s Law [unsourced]: “The party in power is insufferable. The party out of power is insane.”

Michels’ Law: All forms of organization, regardless of how democratic or autocratic they may be at the start, will eventually and inevitably develop into oligarchies.

Muggeridge’s Law: Satire can never compete with real life for its sheer absurdity.

Pournelle’s Iron Law: “[I]n any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative[s] who work to protect any teacher, including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions.”

Reagan’s Observation: “Politics is supposed to be the second oldest profession. I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.” (Remarks at a business conference in Los Angeles, March 2, 1977)

Sowell’s Law: In human problems, there are no solutions, only trade-offs.

Sumner’s Law: The type and formula of most schemes of philanthropy or humanitarianism is this: A and B put their heads together to decide what C shall be made to do for D. The radical vice of all these schemes, from a sociological point of view, is that C is not allowed a voice in the matter, and his position, character, and interests, as well as the ultimate effects on society through C’s interests, are entirely overlooked. […A and B] ignore entirely the source from which they must draw all the energy which they employ in their remedies, and they ignore all the effects on other members of society than the ones they have in view. […T]he State cannot get a cent for any man without taking it from some other man, and this latter must be a man [C] who has produced and saved it. This latter is the Forgotten Man. [The title of Amity Shlaes’ book about the Great Depression and the New Deal pays homage to Sumner.]

Thatcher’s Law: The trouble with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money.

Three Laws of Sociodynamics [an anonymous cynical physicist’s parody on the Three Laws of Thermodynamics]:

  1. Law of conservation of misery
  2. Every spontaneous bureaucratic process strives for the maximum degree of idiocy
  3. The absolute moral nadir cannot be reached in a finite number of steps (i.e., no matter how low people have gotten, they can always get lower).


Antonov’s Observation on Santayana’s Law: “There is a mistaken proverb which tells us that those who are ignorant of the past are condemned to repeat it. In fact, they’re lucky if they’re allowed to repeat it. More probably, they’re condemned to something even worse than the past. This is doubly true of those who believe that their ignorance somehow makes them morally superior to those who don’t share it.” (Spoken by the fictional admiral Ivan Antonov in David Weber and Steve White, “In death ground“.)

Heinlein’s Dichotomy: “Political rags — such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth — are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into
those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire.” (From “The notebooks of Lazarus Long”.)

Benefit of the doubt never really works except in Poker and Trading

I used to second guess human intentions, even though nobody ever second guessed me. But it turns out nasty people are just as nasty as they at first advertise. There is no softer core inside. There is no frog prince.

Poker on the other hand has sand baggers. And in trading there are the faders who fade a trend to hunt for stops. So second guessing really works there. Buy in the fade (adjusted for volatility).

Objective Morality Would Be A Nash Equilibrium

A general theme among various flavors of moral codes, is the assumption that other people ought to give up certain tempting courses of action in order to be moral (e.g. aggression). It is always about how other people should behave because nobody actually behaves the moral way. Everybody is a hypocrite.

Therefore people act in a way which is almost always moral, but immoral at certain convenient times. Most immorality is also done with good intentions, and excuses.

Thus we come to the actual nature of morality which goes unstated in all moral precepts, and that is: “We are only kidding. Don’t take this too seriously unless you are stupid enough to believe”.

Since all morality is just people trying to fool others into becoming predictable and meek, actual morality is something that everyone has no choice but to follow, without screwing up what people care about in general.

Problems with money


Should we ban lending money for interest like Christians and Muslims did in the middle ages?

  • Pros if we do: No bank runs. No credit crunches.
  • Cons if we do: Shortage of money to go to war (taxes aren’t enough in an emergency), and other public welfare projects. Nobody will risk lending such large sums to the government unless they get interest for it.

Should it be backed by (have constant exchange rate with) gold/silver? Should the total supply be constant?

  • Pros if it is: Supply of money cannot be changed to make a few politically connected people (e.g. goldman sachs ) to become rich enough to influence the king/government.
  • Cons if it is: Interest rates will be higher with a constant supply of money because there is fewer money to go around, so even kings will have to collect more taxes to pay off loans borrowed by the government. Since supply of money only changes with new metal, money is hoarded by irrational actors in the economy, until there is not enough invested or lend out to make economic activity happen.

Should money supply change when central banks or governments want?

  • Pros if supply changes: The king/government has a source of low interest money to go to war, or do welfare and other legitimacy building projects, if the need arises.
  • Cons if supply changes: Supply of money can be changed to make a few politically connected people (e.g.court Jews and government contractors ) to become rich enough to influence the king/government.