Thoughts on the book Caesar’s Messiah

Jews had a history of believing that they lost wars when they didn’t listen to their prophets. Jews also had a history of believing that even some of the Gentiles that invaded them were the Messiah. For example, Jewish contemporaries of Alexander the Great thought Alexander was the Jewish Messiah. Source

Roman senator/historian Tacitus says in his Histories 5:13 that:

Few interpreted these omens as fearful; the majority firmly believed that their ancient priestly writings contained the prophecy that this was the very time when the East should grow strong and that men starting from Judea should possess the world. This mysterious prophecy had in reality pointed to Vespasian and Titus, but the common people, as is the way of human ambition, interpreted these great destinies in their own favour, and could not be turned to the truth even by adversity.

So even senator Tacitus thought Jewish prophecies were actually about Vespasian and Titus.

Given that the Ancient Romans invaded at a time when Hellenistic Judaism was popular, I wouldn’t be surprised if Roman invaders also tried to become a Messiah in the eyes of Jews much like how Greeks achieved it. Combining this goal with the goal of creating an explanation for Jewish defeat without losing Roman legitimacy, by inventing a Messiah Jesus that first preached peace & non-violence but later had a second coming in the form of Titus Flavius that used extreme violence as punishment for not listening to the first coming of the Messiah, does not seem that far fetched.

Romans already had a history of engineering and modifying religions in the lands they invaded, so it is not entirely beyond them to do this.

As for Pauline epistles, Galatian 3:16 shows Paul who is supposedly a student of Gamaliel, and a Pharisee of Pharisees does not know enough Hebrew grammar to know Hebrew has no singular for seeds, much like how English has no plural for sheep. This embarrassing mistake by Paul could have happened if Paul used poorly translated Greek source texts of the Old Testament, and his ignorance of Hebrew points to the idea that he was probably at best a Hellenistic Jew. This and his claims that the Justification by Faith has replaced Sinai-tic revelation and attempts to deeply modify Jewish beliefs, and supposed disagreements with the Messianic Jews points to the idea that at the very least he wanted to change Judaism, to become more accepting of the all-powerful polytheistic Roman culture that is taking over. At worst, Pauline attempts to change the Messianic Jews seems exactly the kind of thing Atwill predicted happened when the Gospels were written.

The Messianic Jewish rebels were a major menace before and AFTER the Second Temple was destroyed. In the Kitos war that happened after the destruction of the Second Temple, these Jewish rebels killed 460,000+ Roman citizens. Some of the areas with the heaviest massacres were left so utterly annihilated that others were made to settle these areas to prevent their complete depopulation. See Kitos War.

Only very few people have successfully managed to fight back Rome and live to tell the tale. See what happened to the Druids who resisted Rome, they were so thoroughly destroyed we are not even sure of what they believed. Jews outlived the Roman attempts to erase them. I can see how menacing the Judean rebellion might have been to Rome, given that Judaism survived that time. They will have tried every trick in the book to quench the non-stop rebellion, even to the extent of modifying their religion by inventing Christianity.

While Atwill may have been wrong about some of the parallelomania he exhibits, I think there is a certainly a case to be made for the claim that Romans invented Jesus the Messiah, and later claimed Jesus was a second God to the Jews who only believed in one God.

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Jordan Peterson

One of the core ideas of Mr. Peterson is that ancients viewed as the world as a place to act properly, whereas the modernists view the world as a place of things to be explored with science. He also believes the ancients encoded the ideal ways to act in stories which do not lose meaning over time despite changing circumstances. These stories reappear over and over again throughout time simply because they have the ability to stand the test of time. They tell a common story that I paraphrase thusly:

The ideal way to act is to balance between chaos and order in all realms. Order, and consequent traditions that maintain such order, arise from the chaos of the past. People mindlessly follow such traditions until circumstances change and and then we have to rediscover why, the traditions that helped us, create the order we enjoy today, but are in the risk of losing due to changing circumstances. Once we discover the real reason why traditions used to work, we have to modernize tradition so as to create new traditions.

My personal view of Jordan Peterson is that he is far too optimistic about the human ability to engineer new traditions by understanding old traditions (or as he says it: saving the father from the underworld). Traditions arise from experimentation and variance in behavioral norms of which some survive the test of time by creating societies that stand the test of time. The societies that fail to come up with a workable set of behavioral norms and incentives will perish.

Now that agriculture is industrialized we no longer need half the people to work in it, and therefore more hands don’t mean more food. So we no longer need to make 10 children (of which only 3 would have survived), and that means women do not have to spend their entire lifetime giving birth and raising children, and they are free to be financially independent enough to not need men out of economic necessity but only out of sentiment, which is why other sentiment based lifestyles are also gaining popularity. No longer can children start working as soon as they can sow and reap, so they need to spend their parent’s dime learning for 20 years before they can be financially independent. This makes children expensive, and discourages childbirth and also makes young adults promiscuous before they leave their parents. Fewer expensive children also lead to labor shortages that need to be met using immigration.

The traditions that encouraged women to stay home and be economically dependent to men and raise 10 children, who start working in farms when they are children, and become economically self-sufficient and married in their teens before they have a chance to be promiscuous is no longer relevant.

But other traditions like saying truth all the time, and similar lessons will still stand the test of time.

Perhaps this is a form of saving the father from the belly of the whale or underworld as ancient myths would want us to do.

MH17 is MH370

What if MH370 was renamed to MH17 and filled with dead bodies and shot down over Ukrainian skies using Soviet-era Buk missiles made by Ukrainians (Ukraine was the largest weapons manufacturing place for the Soviets) and said missile attack was blamed on modern Russia led by Putin so as to justify NATO intervention against a pro-Russian government established in northern Ukraine. All of this part of surrounding Russia with NATO weapons and NATO aligned nations.

Tweets predicted MH17 incident 1 month prior: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/malaysia-airlines-mh17-plane-crash-3883544

Also, ever just noticed both MH370 and MH17 are both Boeing 777-200ER models? And MH17 was shot down a few months after MH370.

Its a popular theory in Malaysia the MH370 went to Pakistan because it contained something.

The psychologist counseling the victims is a friend of my friend.

There are Malaysian victims who are completely gone missing to their families. What better way than to recycle those same missing people now dead as passengers of MH17

And now we hear this:

MH370: Four-year hunt ends after private search is completed
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44285241

Case closed. The science is settled.

Blockchain cannot cure Cancer

Anytime there is a new technology that people do not understand, people immediately assume it can solve their problems too. It happened during the Atomic Age, and in the Space Age. This attitude is not to blamed because without it we will never be curious enough to adopt a new technique.

Blockchain can help track and transfer ownership of assets, ensure scarcity or uniqueness of digital information (like votes), and also store information in a way that cannot be altered ever. All of this comes at a price, the auditors of the network has to be paid in an asset managed on the same blockchain, and also everyone has to have a copy of all the information on the blockchain in a way that they too can view its content.

If any of these prerequisites are violated, the blockchain immediately becomes a very shitty database, and ordinary databases will be able to beat its features with ease.

Galatians 3:16 shows Paul doesn’t know Hebrew

Galatians 3:16 uses an incorrect argument that reveals that Paul doesn’t know Hebrew. He assumes Hebrew has the plural of the word seed. It doesn’t. Throughout the Old Testament, we only talk about seed, not seeds, because it is written in Hebrew. For someone like Paul who claimed to be a student of Gamaliel and the Pharisee of Pharisees, his understanding of Hebrew is pretty bad. He would have used a Greek translation like Septuagint to make a point about how Jesus was the Jewish Messiah.

If Paul knowingly used a Greek translation and claimed to be a student of Gamaliel who doesn’t know Hebrew but says he is Jewish, it makes the whole tale look fishy.

Speculation:

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Romans sent Paul to infiltrate the Jewish culture and neuter it’s various Messianic anti-Roman rebels by creating a pro-Roman flavor of the Jewish religion.

For an initially Jewish movement, the stories about Jesus and his followers seem surprisingly pro-Roman, set in a time when the Jewish militants were resisting the Roman rule.

The Jews have in the Old Testament killed their other prophets, and their God punished them for it until they repented and returned to their God. So I wouldn’t be surprised if pro-Roman people like Paul and other New Testament authors used the story of Jews (not Romans) killing Jesus as a reason why they were starved killed when the Second Temple was destroyed.

How Black & Scholes is used

If you had an uncalibrated weighing machine do you use it to find “the true weight” or do you use to “find if you are losing weight and if your friends are heavier than you”?

Surely you would use it only to compare weights or how the weight has changed. Because the machine is uncalibrated it cannot be used to find the true weight.

Black & Scholes is an uncalibrated instrument that can tell the fair price of an option. It is uncalibrated because the market doesn’t always move in a geometric Brownian motion.

So people use it to compare prices of options or the price of the same option under different market conditions.

The various Greeks show how sensitive the price of an option is to various market conditions like directional movements (delta), days to expiry (theta), volatility (Vega). Gamma shows how erratic the price of an option is as the underlying moves around.

Even these sensitivities are only accurate in the intuitive sense because in a trending market (autocorrelation) geometric Brownian motion is not followed the black and Scholes misestimates everything.

One of the main other uses of Black and Scholes is to calculate what the volatility would have been had everyone used Black and Scholes and had the prices moved in a geometric Brownian motion. This is possible because every other parameter of Black and Scholes model is known to all market participants. All that is unknown is how much volatility does everyone expect when pricing their options. Again here we have not concerned with the numerical volatility everyone expects. We are only concerned about how everyone ranks against each other and over time in terms of future volatility they expect. This is why implied volatility rank is more important than the true volatility.

Reports of AI and automation are inflated

One of the grand prophesies of socialism is that eventually capitalism will lead to workers not being paid enough to consume, and workers taking control of the means to production and the creation of classless society. Others believe in the prophecy that automation will lead to universal basic income being needed which leads to workers getting paid to do nothing so that they can keep consuming the products of capital. Still others believe widespread acceptance of climate change and the resulting fear will lead to people ditching oil backed economy which will be made to pay for a socialist egalitarian utopia. Still others hope in a border less hemispheric common marketplace which make all people follow the path taken by the West which will lead to socialism too.

The central hope in the coming of this rapture to work free border less eco friendly paradise is very religious, self fulfilling and there are powerful people who want it to happen.

This hope in the second coming of socialism is what lies at the root of overinflated claims about automation. This is what is behind the hopes that the coming of AI is just around the corner when we will finally not have to toil anymore and that this AI will work for our pleasure so that we can consume freely without ruining the environment.

Unfortunately no matter what prophecies say, the current state of automation and AI is unprincipled and will not hasten the arrival of a work free utopia. When AI is finally realized it wouldn’t even be a genie that grants our wishes. It will be a god and much like the gods of religion its behaviour will be absurd.

God acts in mysterious ways.