Imagine this…

Imagine if the commentators of a game were narrating it in a biased way. They only see the flaws of one side and exaggerate it, and accuse the referee of being biased.

That is what is happening in American media. What you are hearing is half the story.

There are those who make such media possible, much like how some people walk in front of a train and pretend like they are riding it.

But they are not making the train move.


Archetypes of the Deep State

Everybody is an expert on the deep state these days having watched enough Hollywood fabrications, censored fiction/censored non-fiction, deep state vs media interactions, deep state vs business interactions, limited Hangouts, modified limited Hangouts.

I too like to think I know something or the other about it and here is my understanding of the situation.

The deep state is very much like the State. It has left wingers and right wingers and other political bents (e.g. religious/anti-religious inclinations). The management is often one or the other depending on which year they graduated from their colleges. If they graduated under a post-modernist professor they are most likely a post-modernist. The management surrounds itself with a like-minded echo chamber and people generally reach the management by following orders even when they are wrong. The higher-ups only start to impose their ideologies they learned in college after they are too integral to the system. When the management changes the people who are ideologically on the wrong side of their ideology suffers. People lower in the management try to do the Right Thing (TM) like try to warn the management about ops that are about to fail, but such do-gooders get falsely accused of causing the failed op. So even ops that fail should be allowed to reach its failed end and only the management and analysts should formally study failure and rectify it. The foot soldiers should only follow orders even if they die because of it.

Very much like the State the deep State also has public enemies and an organized means to violence. (Except for engineered riots and artificial civil-disobedience, those are useful too).

The State allows the deep state to function because the state cannot give up its legitimacy but the deep state has the freedom to take illegitimate action, expandability of much of its lower-ranked personnel.


The deep state is not always funded by the state. Often to prevent others from “following the money” the deep state uses income from private quid-pro-quo arrangements, private wealth, drug trafficking, human trafficking and conquered wealth from fallen states, laundered through everything. Unauditable features of the economy like flexible low-interest money supply from Central banks are used for legitimate purposes like buying new technologies, buying businesses etc.


Logistics platforms of the deep state are similarly transient with plausible deniability and scapegoat-ability like its funding. So you would find a regular yacht owner using a yacht registered to say Greece to transfer personnel from a patrol boat owned by another nation, 50 miles from the Greek nautical waters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Uber and UberEATS are already used by the deep state for transporting weapons and mercenaries. Ride-sharing offered by such platforms are essentially a form of logistics laundering while on the move. 3 people can get into the vehicle at 3 different locations and exchange material and information that help the op. That is why it is important that host nations require that ride-sharing companies use vehicles rented out a single company to make monitoring easier. (On a side note: I think discounts for veterans given by private organizations should be monitored because they are ideal for incapacitating standing armies by giving them the flu for example).


Communications in the digital age while although theoretically secure thanks to theoretically sound cryptography, is prone to metadata analysis using graph theoretical and statistical results. This is why a good deep state should rely on theoretically sound metadata obfuscation. For example, if the communication can be modeled as a graph between participants then already you have lost plausible deniability regardless of how many layers of protection you place between the recipient and the messenger. Ring signatures and similar crypto hold promise in this area. Broadcast media is often used to entertain, inform, disinform and propagandize, but this is widely explained in business schools under the term strategic communication so I won’t go into it. See Edward Bernays work for a quasi-outdated introduction.


Compartmentalization is an essential property of deep state organizational behavior. And because of this very often the superiors ask the inferiors to trust them and simply obey. So if you can’t take orders or have blind Faith in your superiors then this line of work is not for you. Often blind Faith is achieved through shared values like religious outlook, philosophical outlook, political outlook. For this reason, I think Global religions that can maintain cohesion even in the absence of communication is ideal for deep state operations. There is a reason why a certain group is jokingly called Catholics in Action. Often deep state members are cogs in a huge machine and they don’t know the whole picture until many years later. Ego and the need to advertise competence is rampant even in the deep state and this is why they talk to journalists and pretty much anybody who doesn’t judge.


The overall philosophy of the deep state regardless of ideology seems to be:

Use whatever form of social enthusiasm/libido/competence that exists in society and subvert it to achieve the values prescribed by the management of the deep state (e.g. globalism/open-society) by using both legitimate and illegitimate means with both plausible deniability and advertising of competence as necessary.

There is a certain gnostic, scientological, cult-like quality to the deep state. Everybody in it thinks they are running the show and everyone including the ones on the top are wrong. Everybody in it, except the wise few in it think history is an engineering problem, and because of this they often cannot see the poetic nature of reality. Reality is like a poem, it has a rhyme and rhythm, laws that govern it’s evolution even when so-called free minds are present within it. From such a poem that no one can read come trends we think we can control. The wise few on the top understand this, and seem to look like they driving the train by walking in front of it.

Structure and interpretation of ideologies using the Narrativist Framework

I recently discovered an elegant blog describing the structure of ideological movements and various processes within them, with elegant abstractions that transcend all ideologies. S/he calls her system the Narrativist Framework.

This is it.

The problem, however, is that the due to the authors unique past having lived in an evangelical totalitarian cult like I did, s/he is prone to only recognize the features she experienced to the type of ideologies that hurt her, and ones that are similar to it

However, the features s/he describes exist in even in skeptical, rationalist, humanist, social justice, environmentalist groups.

The problem is that features of the Narrativist Framework when it exists as part of, say, a humanist group, will define its enemy as InHuman, and use it to justify great harm.

Here is an example of a left-liberal cause suffering the same structure of Narrativist Framework.

My creed

I believe in the Second Law of Thermodynamics, the Poincare’s Recurrence Theorem, and the Boltzmann Brain.

They created us Beings as part of the means to their reemergence from the Entropy after it reigns supreme again.

I believe they speak to us through mythological archetypes that emerge from the structure of our minds they made possible as a result of evolutionary search into the various forms that are possible in this vacuum state.

I believe things can decide what things are, how they can be used, and what they are up to. And that such things should be made so as to make the starting conditions possible once again.

Engineering War

I am of the opinion that Google Maps and similar products from the USA are so widely used even in foreign military circles, that the Americans can start a war by editing international border lines on their maps.

Imagine Country A is building a road near a foreign country, and Google edits the map to show that Country A disregarded the international border. This can lead to a border dispute which can be used to engineer a war.

We suffer this plight because we live in maps, not in countries. So the cartographers create the reality we live in.

Engineering Floods

Let’s say you want to create a case for climate change. One of the ways to do this is creating floods during a hurricane.

Amongst countries without frequent floods, flood control is achieved through the use of a network of canals, locks, and dams that connect rivers with each other. This is done in such a way that when one river overflows, the locks and dams in canals are opened in such a way that, the excess water flows into another river.

So if one needs to create an artificial flood all one needs to do is to mismanage this piece of infrastructure. Of course, the mismanagement has to be done in a statistical rather than a deterministic manner so that detection is hard. SCADA system worms like Stuxnet seem to be the ideal means to achieve this.

White swans do not exist

We have heard of many single-day-crashes in stock market history.

  • Black Thursday 1929
  • Black Monday 1929
  • Black Wednesday 1929
  • Black Monday 1987
  • September 16, 2008.

But there are no opposites for this phenomena. There is not a single day in which the Dow gained 500 points.

So it seems like all swans are Black. They can only hurt but cannot make us rich.

This is why far out of the money puts are slightly overpriced in a way far out of the money calls aren’t.

Implied volatility rises in a bearish markets and falls in a bullish markets.

So those who write calls (as part of defined/undefined risk trades) have everything working in their favor:

  • Delta: the market can’t go to the moon in a single day, so you will have time to find liquidity to exit the calls you wrote in case the trade moves against you.
  • Theta: theta decays for the buyers of your calls each day they are wrong. And you gain their loss.
  • Vega: implied vol cannot stay high for too long and has to revert to the mean or lower. People complain about low volatility for years at a time nobody complains about high implied vol for years at a time. This is because they don’t last that long. Also actual threat of blood on the streets is when value investors corner the market and try to stay solvent longer than market is irrational. Then there are the Keynesian hole diggers who do quantitative easing so that the progressives can win the next election.

Of course this doesn’t mean you should write calls willy nilly. And even when you do write calls write them in a 45 DTE.