Black Swans Are Only A Problem To Those Who Desire Omniscience

Had the Western civilization been very proficient in molecular genetics they would not have falsely concluded that all swans are white.

They would have been able to derive the alternate phenotype and the predator-prey network in which they will appear.

Of course, it would require a level of knowledge and computing power only available to the hypothetical gods that men dream about.

Still it is not impossible. My point is that the problem of induction is only a problem when induction is executed with incomplete information.

The problem of induction is not metaphysical. It is epistemological.

As long as we are unable to simulate extremely complex NP complete cause-effect graphs of some phenomena we will be forced to decide some (not all) decisions in the face of ignorance.

On the other hand there exist simpler solutions grounded in known values which will eventually affect the outcome predictably. Using such paths will help us avoid Black Swans.

This is the lesson we ought to learn from Taleb. Unfortunately the modern public wishes to hear a smart ass say we know nothing in spite of 300 years of science and free trade. And that is indeed what they hear.


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