Conviction is a luxury for those on the sidelines.

I don’t know jackshit about biology or agriculture, but I have strong
opinions about how famers should grow crops that feed billions without
famine.

I don’t know jackshit about how medicines work, but I want to ban and
regulate them.

I don’t know jackshit about very bad pain, but I want to ban
painkillers that are safer than my car.

I was vaccinated, so I don’t know jackshit about third world diseases,
but I want take away that luxury from my child.

I don’t know how doctors work and think, but I want to be able to tell
them what to do.

I don’t know jackshit about the financial markets. Since I don’t know
what they do, and since they make money, they must be evil. Therefore,
I want to the power to tell them what they can and cannot do.

Being the First

Being the first to do something does not automatically guarantee
future success. That is one of the things I learnt the hard way.

It is fun to say – Been there, done that.

But happiness ought to be sought in the achievement and not in how
many of thy colleagues have not made it.

Chosen vs. Unchosen Obligations

There are two philosophies about how we should behave towards others.

  1. Doctrine of duties: This one says, we have unchosen obligations towards others.
  2. Doctrine of rights: This one says, we have chosen obligations towards others.
The only way Doctrine 1 can be implemented is by denying everyone the inalienable freedom to live for one's own sake, act for one's own sake and pursue one's own goals.

The only way Doctrine 2 can be implemented is by protecting everyone's inalienable freedom to live for one's own sake, act for one's own sake and pursue one's own goals.

Both of these are mutually incompatible. While we can pretend to have both, but we cannot do so for long. Either we stick with unchosen obligations or we go for chosen obligations. If we try to implement both we will have to progressively take away the freedoms of individuals so as to make them do their duties towards each other.

See what philosopher Auguste Comte (who coined the term altruism) had to say:

All honest and sensible men of whatever party should agree by a common consent to eliminate the doctrine of rights.

[Doctrine 1] only recognises duties duties of all to all. Placing itself as it does at the social point of view it cannot tolerate the notion of rights for such notion rests on individualism. We are born under a load of obligations of every kind obligations to our predecessors to our successors to our contemporaries. After our birth these obligations increase or accumulate for it is some time before we can return any service. Where then in the case of man is the foundation on which we are to rest the idea of rights. That idea properly viewed implies some previous efficiency. However great our efforts the longest life well employed will never enable us to pay back more than a scarcely perceptible part of what we received And yet only on the condition of complete payment could we be authorized to require reciprocity of services. Rights then in the case of man are as absurd as they are immoral.

Government which implement Doctrine 1 will gradually take away the rights of its citizens so that they can be forced to perform their unchosen obligations.

Bold & Possibly Wrong Predictions

Dark Ages have already begun.

Contrary to what people think about the Dark Ages, they are merely periods in history when the conditions are not conducive for a reign of competence, which results in incremental and non-disruptive changes, which people wrongly take for granted as how things have always been and will always be. For instance, there may never be anything as disruptive as the Internet or the Moon Launch for a long long time to come. There will of course be extensive cataloging of knowledge gained through existing means, and incremental inventions and discoveries that result from it. We will be constantly bombarded with yet another study that classifies yet another substance or activity as carcinogenic or cancer preventing. There will be cheaper hard-disks with more memory and better algorithms to sift through irrelevant information.

No extra-terrestrial bodies bigger than asteroids will be explored by human hands until the moon landing becomes a semi-legend.

The fact is, unless space travel aligns itself with our pursuit of happiness through productive achievement, it will never be extensive. East India Company was not funded with taxes but Magellan was. Exploration has to become profitable. It cannot be sustained on coercive gathering of wealth. And there exist no happiness worth seeking on extra-terrestrial objects. Granted, nudging asteroids into weird near earth orbits for profitable exploitation is possible, but only after there are significant legal developments in the areas of private property in space and only after the environmentalists can be silenced.

Global Climate Change won't be as bad as predicted.

The hysteria will be carefully forgotten by new younger people who will find newer things to be hysterical about.

Intelligent extra-terrestrial life will not be contacted for a long time to come.

Our species will be forced to be self-reliant with no one up there to save us from anything.

All government supported new energy production paradigms will prove its inability to meet the nature of demands currently met by fossil fuels.

Whale Oil is to Fossil Fuels as Fossil Fuels is to What? This question won't be answered for a long time to come. Those with answers will withhold the answer until they can be sure they can profit from it. It will not come from a government supported program. It will not be solar or wind.

USA will become a License Raj, crippled by government bureaucracy and red tape.

Needs no explanation.

Accidental Look-Ahead Bias

Look-Ahead Bias is how temporal models of reality can incorporate hindsight into its decision making process, and thus seem to function exceptionally well when explaining the past but performs poorly when predicting the future.

A well known example is the character Captain Hindsight in the South Park series:

“There’s people trapped in that burning building, Captain Hindsight!” – Firefighter
“And the fire is so massive, we can’t get to them!” – Other Firefighter
“Hm. You see those windows on the right side? They should have built fire escapes on those windows for the higher floors, then people could have gotten down. And then on the roof; they should have built it with a more reinforced structure, so a helicopter could have landed on it.” – Captain Hindsight
“Yes, of course!” – Firefighter
“And then you see that building to the left?” – Captain Hindsight
“Yes!” – Firefighter
“They shouldn’t have built that there, because now you can’t park any firetrucks where you really need to. Well, looks like my job here is done. Goodbye everyone!” – Captain Hindsight
“Thank you, Captain Hindsight!” – Firefighter
*Cheers* – Everyone

 Many climate and financial models accidentally incorporate such hindsight. I recently (re)discovered two such cases: Standardization and Normalization.

Standardization of a time series as a whole means to convert the time series into standard scores – i.e. scaled and shifted versions of the values of the time series. But such scaling and shifting is done by looking at the distribution of values, average value. etc. Such information ought not to be factored into the past of the time series because it is only available in the future.

Normalization is even more worse, because it scales & shifts the values of the time series into between -1 and 1 or 0 and 1, thus explicitly factoring in information about the maximum, minimum of the time series into its past.

Given a time-series which has factored in information about the future, it is relatively easy to come up with a process, that will explain the past. But the process will be unable to predict the future.

Here is why Communism & Socialism necessarily lead to Totalitarianism

History is plagued with Communist & Socialist countries which are also totalitarian. There is a reason for this. Communism & Socialism is founded on the principle that we have a moral duty to serve others, whether “the poor” or “the public interest” or “society” or “the common good.”

Since no one wishes to serve others, there is only one way this can be realized: coercion.

A government animated by the principle of an individual’s moral duty to serve others will increasingly force citizens to serve the so-called “common good”—and with each political success, the government will get bolder and more aggressive in its enforcement of this principle.

It is important to note that, when the Left speaks of duty they are not talking about chosen obligations like contracts and other mutually beneficial agreements, instead they are talking about unchosen obligations.

Philosopher John Rawls explains, whereas regular obligations “arise as a result of our voluntary acts,” duties “apply to us without regard to our voluntary acts.” We have a duty “to help another, whether or not we have committed ourselves to [doing so]. It is no defense or excuse to say that we have made no promise . . . to come to another’s aid.”

A “duty” is non-optional; it is something you must do regardless of what you want, regardless of what you think is in your interest, regardless of what you would choose to do if you had a choice in the matter. In the words of the foremost advocate of this idea, the German philosopher Immanuel Kant, “duty is a necessitation to an unwillingly adopted end,” and its “specific mark” is “the renunciation of all interest.

British philosopher John Stuart Mill explains:
It is a part of the notion of duty in every one of its forms that a person may rightfully be compelled to fulfill it. Duty is a thing which may be exacted from a person, as one exacts a debt. Unless we think that it may be exacted from him, we do not call it his duty. . . . There are other things, on the contrary, which we wish that people should do, which we like or admire them for doing, perhaps dislike or despise them for not doing, but yet admit that they are not bound to do. . . .
Whereas a “duty” is an (alleged) obligation that one has apart from one’s choices or interests and that one “may rightfully be compelled to fulfill,” a right is a prerogative to act in accordance with one’s choices and interests so long as one does not violate the same rights of others. In other words, “duties” and rights are utterly incompatible. They are mutually exclusive. A person can have one or the other—but not both.

The French philosopher Auguste Comte (who coined the term “altruism”) puts this clearly: Because “to live for others” is “for all of us a constant duty” and “the definitive formula of human morality,” it follows that “[a]ll honest and sensible men, of whatever party, should agree, by a common consent, to eliminate the doctrine of rights.” Altruism, explained Comte, “cannot tolerate the notion of rights, for such notion rests on individualism.” On the premise of altruism, “[rights] are as absurd as they are immoral. . . . The whole notion, then, must be completely put away.”

Thus we see how unchosen obligations are the anti-thesis of natural rights. Unchosen obligations necessarily lead to destruction of rights, i.e. totalitarianism.

I made 26 revolutions around the nearest star.. Yay!

Was not easy. If I had to do it again, I'd like somethings changed in the next version. The universe is benign most of the time. Catastrophes are anomalies, but they suck big time when it happens. Got to make sure they do not happen. My ancestors did an OK job within their limited knowledge and cognitive biases. Some of them were ahead of their time. I'd like to thank them for their balls which I think I have inherited.